Abu Dhabi, UAE — November 12, 2024: The UAE is facing a significant shift in its climate, with experts predicting a rise in rainfall intensity and temperatures over the coming decades. According to Dr. Mohammed Al Abri, Director of the Meteorology Department at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), rainfall could increase by 10 to 20 percent, while average temperatures are expected to rise by as much as 1.7°C. These changes are anticipated both in the short and long term, with officials urging increased preparedness for extreme weather events, such as last April’s unprecedented rainfall.
Increase in Rainfall and Temperature
Speaking at a seminar on Crisis and Natural Disaster Management hosted by Dubai Police, Dr. Al Abri warned that these climate changes could lead to more frequent and severe weather events. “We expect an increase in rainfall rates over the coming decade, and it’s crucial to issue early warnings, even if the accuracy of our forecasts may not always be guaranteed,” he said.
Under a low emissions scenario, projections show a gradual rise in annual average temperatures over the next century. Dr. Al Abri emphasized that this will lead to more extreme weather conditions, with more nights where minimum temperatures exceed 30°C and an increase in the number of days where daytime temperatures surpass 40°C.
Shifting Rainfall Patterns
Rainfall patterns are also expected to change. The UAE is forecast to see a 20 percent increase in rainfall effectiveness, with the potential for more intense rainfall events. Dr. Al Abri noted that the highest recorded rainfall in a single day could increase by 10 to 25 percent compared to current statistics. The extreme rainfall event of April 2024, when some areas received more than 100mm of rain in just a few days, serves as a stark reminder of what might lie ahead. In Khatm Al Shakla, rainfall reached 259mm, while Al Marmoum recorded 219mm, the highest amounts in Dubai.
Technological Advancements in Monitoring
The UAE’s meteorological infrastructure, which includes 140 surface and marine weather stations, seven weather radars, and other monitoring systems, plays a vital role in tracking and predicting these weather changes. Dr. Al Abri highlighted the importance of this infrastructure in collecting critical data to help mitigate the impact of severe weather.
Preparing for Future Crises
Lt-Gen Dhahi Khalfan bin Tamim, Deputy Chief of Police and Public Security in Dubai, also addressed the growing challenge of climate change. He called it one of the biggest threats facing individuals, institutions, and nations today. “Heavy rains and floods test our capacity to plan and respond effectively to mitigate the impacts of crises,” he said.
He further emphasized that crisis management goes beyond immediate disaster response. “It requires long-term strategies, starting with early planning, fostering community collaboration, and focusing on rehabilitation and rebuilding efforts after disasters,” Lt-Gen Khalfan added.
As climate-related weather events are expected to intensify across the UAE and the wider region in the next decade, authorities are urging greater focus on preparedness and resilience to face the challenges of a changing climate.
