OPEC has released its Monthly Oil Market Report, projecting a robust increase in global oil demand and revising its forecasts for both 2023 and 2024. According to the report, world oil demand is expected to grow by a healthy 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching 104.25 mb/d in 2024. This represents an upward revision of about 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment.
The organization also raised its forecast for 2023, predicting a demand growth of 2.4 mb/d. OPEC attributes this positive outlook to the anticipated growth in key oil-consuming countries such as China and India, as well as other developing economies in Asia. These countries are expected to contribute to approximately half of next year’s global economic growth. The report assumes that general inflation will continue to retract in the second half of 2023 and in 2024, and that tight monetary policies will persist, with key policy rates peaking by the end of 2023. Additionally, OPEC expects central banks to adopt more accommodative monetary policies by the second half of 2024.
Regarding economic growth, OPEC forecasts a world GDP growth of 2.6% in 2023, remaining relatively unchanged for 2024 at 2.5%.
The report also highlights an upward revision in the demand for OPEC crude in 2023, which is now projected to reach 29.4 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous month’s assessment. This represents a growth of approximately 1.0 mb/d compared to 2022. Based on initial forecasts for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply in 2024, OPEC expects demand for its crude to rise to 30.2 mb/d, marking a 0.8 mb/d increase from the 2023 level.